Over the last three days it has become obvious, that the hopes of the entire european political class and its lapdog media rest on a NO VOTE in today’s greek referendum. This is so, because only a no vote facilitates the restructuring of greek debt without an overly bad fall out on the politicos of creditor (guarantor) nations (Merkel, Schäuble, Faymann). If greeks vote to reject the EU proposal (which is not on the table anyways), our bigots in charge can do, what they would not dare to do openly: to agree to a debt reduction, a debt, that has been assumed from 2010 to 2012 with the help of them themselves.
As can be seen in one of my previous postings, Europe’s social democrats are for the restructuring of greek debt too – but not because the money is gone und can under no circumstances be repaid (or: the debt sustained). Social democrats are for debt forgiveness because it is a) part of their political agenda and because b) they (“their” countries) can hope to profit from it further down the road – as is the case for Italy.
If greeks vote yes in the referendum the main problem of Merkel & company remains unresolved: There will be no debt reduction and those politicos will have to arrange another event, which can serve as pretext for debt forgiveness. In this case they will probably have to do it on their own, without the help of game theorist and master gambler Varoufakis.
Understanders of german can read more in my previous posting.
The greek government has to play the most difficult role in this drama. It has to mobilize disgruntled greeks with an appeal to their socialist, nationalist and antiimperialist instincts, but it must not allow an overshoot of these political feelings.
If Athens proves unable to restrain these antieuropean feelings or if the people thinks that the name of the game is really political independence, then a compromise with creditor nations has become impossible. A “compromise”, a clean debt reduction by 30 per cent, which was the goal of the new greek government from day one.
Of course such a “compromise” will turn out to be a mere first step later on, in due time, when neither Merkel nor Tsipras will still be in office.
Politicians in creditor nations did not not face such a difficult communications’ task, because they don’t have to contend in a referendum and because their electorate will in any case go along with what their politicos decide (or so the latter think).
Meanwhile german finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, has made clear, that Greece will remain part of the Euro, no matter what. As did german chancellor Merkel, who hinted at supposedly “interesting offers” from the part of Greece. Athens finance minister Varoufakis confided to Channel Four on friday, that there was at least one proposal from the EU, which he would sign “on the dotted line” immediately. But to do this, a no vote in the referendum would be of essence.
This is for everybody to see and it is a childrens’ game to connect the dots. This is what I call a plan, the master plan of a gambler.
Everybody who wants to see it, can see it. The mainstream media chose not to. The lying press even fails to report the obvious signs of the grand bargain between european centrist parties, the Tsipras governmant and the Obama administration (Washington is on board as well, because it wants to keep Greece within the EU, at least as long as europeans pay for it).
Of course this is a plan only, so far. A multi party, multidimensional, extreme gamble. Bets like this can fail for a lot of reasons.