Corona: Quiet on the Southern Front in Lombardy

Ende_März_2020_bearbeitetWhile in the “European Corona-Ground Zero” Lombardy, a relatively late,march_2018_Knoema now rapidly retreating flu-like epidemic really exists, the difference to Lombardian ILI-epidemics in recent years is limited. A fact check.

According to the bulletin of the Roman Ministry of Health from March 31, there were 7,200 “corona deaths” (as our mainstream journos tend to put it) in Lombardy, or more precisely: 7,199 deaths which, according to a smear test (with “tamponi”), had been infected with corona during their lifetime.

This does NOT mean that Covid was the sole, or even that Corona was the main cause of their death.

These 7,200 so called Corona deaths are without any doubt “part of the normal death rate” in this region, probably increased by the “excess mortality” of this year’s flu epidemic (more precisely: an “epidemic of flu-like infections/ILI”).

In the past years, 8,000 to 9,000 deaths were commonplace in march (this blogger does not have any current figures for march 2020 – but according to various statements, they are “slightly above the long-term average”).

In the third month of 2018, the (for me) last available “hard data”, 9,060 Lombards died (see screenshot KNOEMA above the fold).

This has to be seen on par with the 7,200 “corona deaths” officially announced for March 2020.

Usually in this month the annual flu epidemic has already ebbed, so that “additional mortality” is “only” caused by special weather conditions, etc.

However, there are flu seasons such as 2014/15, in which the epidemic reaches its peak late and where the increased mortality has dragged on into March – e.g. 03/15, when 9,440 people lost their lives in Lombardy.

In other influenza seasons, such as 2016/17, january became the month of death par excellence and March was hardly noteworthy any more, see KNOEMA (subscription required).

KNOEMA data on jan 2017, SC

Now, in March 2020 such a late ILI epidemic is likely to have been rampant in Lombardy.

The published dynamics and death rates suggest that this is/was the case.

According to the daily figures of the “Corona deaths” published in Rome (“Deceduti”)

  • the numbers of (newly) deceased “peaked” on March, 26 & 27, at around 540 deaths and have fallen to 238 to date (april, 8).
  • Such a rapid development would not have been possible without a real epidemic and administrative and police measures “Dr. Eisenbart style”.

(Translated partly with the help of

Unabhängiger Journalist

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